Sony, Fox and Universal are trying to get back into animated films? But are they really a license to print money?

With the success of animated films like Ratatouille, Shrek the Third and Horton Hears a Who, more Hollywood studios are getting into the toon zone.

For animation fans and parents, this means a bonanza of G and PG-rated films rumbling into theatres over the next two years. For fans of edgier animated fare like Persepolis, Beowulf and A Scanner Darkly, it means that animation will be pretty much a kids-only area for the forseeable future.

Obviously, tougher times for the economy means studios are going to be a lot more careful about the films they produce. They don't want to take risks that might blow up in their faces.

Why More Animated Movies?

The rationale is simple: the U.S. economy is currently teetering on a full-bore recession, which means the studios have to be more conservative about the films they produce.

"These are precarious times," National Association of Theater Owners president John Fithian told Variety. "Anybody who is prudent would be taking a look at the family category."

Family-oriented movies are always a solid bet, since they can be marketed to the widest audience and they have an unusually high linger factor on home video. Children love to watch their favourite flicks over and over again, and parents are more than willing to buy more animated DVDs if it means their little darlings aren't molesting the family cat or flushing strange objects down the toilet.

Computer generated imagery (or CGI) is the most popular mode of animation these days, since it's relatively cheap to grab a bunch of computers, compared to a roomful of animators labouring over a single sequence. Therefore, CGI animated movies are the only game in town (that is, unless you're Disney and putting together event movies like Rapunzel and The Princess and the Frog).

However, 2006's box office proved that CGI animated movies weren't the license to print money so many studio executives think they are. Among the offerings for that year, only Fox's Ice Age 2: The Meltdown, Warner Bros.' Happy Feet and Disney/Pixar's Cars hit blockbuster status. DreamWorks Animation's Over the Hedge, Sony's Open Season and Paramount's Barnyard were solid moneymakers but didn't cross the magical $200 million mark.

But 2006 also featured many bombs like The Weinstein Company's Doogal, Disney's The Wild (a not-so-subtle ripoff of DreamWorks' Madagascar), Warner Independent's A Scanner Darkly, Sony's Monster House, Warner Bros.' The Ant Bully, and DreamWorks Animation/Aardman Animation's Flushed Away. None of these films made back their price tag at the domestic box office. The worst of these box office failures was Flushed Away, as battles between Aardman and DreamWorks drove the cost of the flick through the roof, killed their alliance, and resulted in DreamWorks eventually requesting a $109 million tax write-down for the flick.

That year wasn't an isolated case. In 2007, Sony's Surf's Up, DreamWorks' Bee Movie, Paramount's Beowulf, and Disney's Meet the Robinsons also proved that CGI animation isn't bullet-proof. Surf's Up's visuals earned it a dark horse nomination for Best Animated Feature Film, but that failed to save it from wiping out at the box office. Bee Movie has been topping the DVD charts, but it failed to make back its $150 million price tag in domestic theatres.

How Will The New Studios Do With Animation?

Predicting the future is a messy business. But there are some indicators as to how each studio will do with animation.

The big question for Twentieth Century Fox is how they can keep going without former Animation president Chris Meledandri. He oversaw both Ice Age movies, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and Horton Hears a Who and obviously knows how to put together hit movies, even if the critics don't always love them. It's too early to tell if Vanessa Morrison can keep that run going. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs could be problematic: the gag quotient will need to be extremely high to compensate for the historical issues with the story.

Meledandri's snagging Ricky Gervais for Universal looks like a good move. Gervais has proven he can do comedy and if his instincts are still on the money, Universal should have a solid first film with Flanimal. The big question is whether Universal's executive suite can stay out of Gervais' way while he does what he does best. The fact that Universal lured Meledandri to their company has promise; that Universal begged for him means he can cover for his artists more than most . . . should he choose to.

It doesn't look like Sony's troubles are ending anytime soon. Amy Pascal doesn't seem to know animation, and Hannah Minghella was hired to take over Sony Pictures Animation because of her loyalty to Pascal, not for her knowledge of the genre. Sony needs to find someone who knows the art and craft of animation if they want to get noticed.

The best case scenario has Sony animators and writers suffering through conferences where Harvard MBA grads tell them how to make movies. The worst? More box office bombs like Surf's Up.

Who Will End Up on Top?

At this point, Pixar's reign as the #1 animation studio doesn't seem to be ending soon. John Lasseter has hung onto his brain trust of directors, and the studio hasn't had a bomb yet. WALL-E looks to be another brilliant film; the only question is whether 2009's Up continues or breaks Pixar's winning streak.

DreamWorks has been considered the #2 studio, but Fox is breathing heavily down their necks. If DW can pull it out with Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar: The Crate Escape 2 Africa, then they'll stay where they are. However, Fox has already done a lot of damage with their surprising streak of hit films, and they could easily overtake DreamWorks, especially if the next couple of Shrek films tank.